15.2.10

Math thought experiment

I was just reading Randal's XKCD blag, and he posted a problem which seemed oddly familiar to my "Thought Experiment" from a while back. Turns out there's a wiki on the Two Envelops Paradox. This fascinates me, because I came up with the two envelops thing all on my own (at least I think I did.) Obviously, I'm not going to try to take credit for this... I just think it's always interesting when you come up with something completely on your own (an idea, a joke/riddle, a recipe, movie plot, camera rig, etc.) and realize that you're not the first.

It's kinda like when your learn a brand new word - that you've never ever heard before - and suddenly you hear it, like, four times the following week.

2 comment(s):

dean said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necktie_paradox

I actually can't wrap my mind around how people could figure it was anything other than 50-50% to be honest.

February 15, 2010 3:01 PM
marcc said...

With the 2 envelops paradox, my brother is convinced that the average amount of money in a infinite amount of trials will be greater with always choosing the second envelop. Therefore, it is statistically more sound to chose the second envelop.

Unfortunately, statistics do not play a role in a once-occurring event. Assuming you are, in fact, offered this opportunity MORE than once, you should still treat it as a stand alone event, weighing the potential psychological effects of your choice more heavily than the mathematical probabilities.

February 15, 2010 4:05 PM

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